17th-ranked Cougars set to pounce on Mustangs

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/21/2009 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 17th-ranked Houston Cougars are set to play their first home game in nearly a month, as they square off against the SMU Mustangs in Conference USA action this weekend at Robertson Stadium.

The Cougars wrapped up a three-game road trip over the weekend, using a big second half to come away with a 44-16 victory over Tulane on Saturday.

"You know, I'm proud of them," said head coach Kevin Sumlin of his team's performance after the intermission. "I thought they came out and created their own energy. They moved the ball offensively to score, stopped them on defense, and blocked a punt. Those are the kind of things that on the road, you couldn't have a better series of events to start the second half."

It was the second win in a row for the Cougars, who suffered their lone loss at Texas-El Paso (58-41) to begin the road trip. Now at 5-1, Houston is off to its best start since 2003 and the team is playing at home for the first time since clipping Texas Tech (29-28) in a thriller back on September 26th.

As for the Mustangs, they have dropped three of their last four games following a 2-0 start to the season. Two of those losses have come in overtime, including a 38-35 setback to Navy this past weekend.

"There's no formula to it," head coach June Jones said about winning overtime games. "You just have to do it. You have to win."

SMU is now 1-10 all-time in overtime games and the two extra-session losses could prove costly for a program that is looking for its first bowl bid since 1984. Still, the Mustangs bring a 2-0 league record to his game and one of those victories came over East Carolina (28-21), the defending C-USA champions.

With respect to the all-time series, the Cougars hold a 14-9-1 edge against SMU and that includes a 44-38 triumph in last season's meeting.

Bo Levi Mitchell's 10-yard touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson with 1:35 to go forced overtime, but the Mustangs missed a field goal on their possession in the extra-period and Navy's Joe Buckley hit a 24-yarder to give the Midshipmen a 38-35 win this past weekend. It was a disappointing finish for SMU, which gained 376 total yards, right on its season average of 365.0 ypg.

Unlike prior games however, the Ponies had success on the ground and rushed for 176 yards, more than double their average of 84.2 ypg. Shawnbrey McNeal recorded his second 100-yard game of the season and first against a BCS program, toting 15 times for 131 yards. The Mustangs don't run a whole lot, but when given the chance, McNeal has proven capable with 500 yards on the season.

The Mustangs like to spread the field on offense and let Mitchell pick apart opposing defenses. The second-year quarterback though, has had issues with mistakes and has already thrown 10 picks after leading the nation with 23 in 2008. Mitchell, however, is still average 280.8 ypg through the air and against Navy he threw for 200 yards and a score, although he was just 19-of-41 on pass attempts.

Emmanuel Sanders is the primary threat to opposing secondary's and he continues to churn out the numbers, leading SMU with 53 catches for 581 yards and a pair of scores.

After just five games, SMU's defense is noticeably better than a year ago, but the unit still needs to improve on the 393.0 total ypg it is surrendering. The defense though, has compensated for some of the surrendered yards by forcing 20 turnovers, including 13 interceptions.

Last weekend, the Ponies were forced to face Navy's option attack and the defense was shredded for 331 yards and five scores on the ground. The defense did score on a fumble return by Sterling Moore and the group even forced five punts, but it just wasn't enough in the end.

"We played good enough to win defensively," said coach Jones. "If you had told me we could have made them punt five times, I would have thought we'd won."

Chase Kennemer paced the defense with 11 tackles, as he continues to top the roster in stops, with 67 for the year.

Offensively, there are very few teams that can match the explosiveness that Houston brings to the field each week, as the Cougars are generating 40.8 ppg behind a whopping 560.3 total ypg. A majority of the success is attributed to a passing attack that is led by Case Keenum, who has been mentioned as a Heisman Trophy candidate. The efficient quarterback has completed 70.1 percent of his pass attempts for 2,501 yards, with 19 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Last weekend, Keenum threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns on 33-of-46 tosses in another workmen like effort.

"We came out a little mellow in the first half," said Keenum, whose team was up just 9-6 at the break. "We weren't executing in the red zone like we needed to."

Keenum rallied the troops after the intermission and led Houston to 35 second- half points on his way to a sixth straight 300-yard passing performance this season.

James Cleveland caught one of Keenum's touchdown passes last weekend and he has emerged as a threat each week, leading the team with 45 catches and six touchdowns. Tyron Carrier (483 yards) and Patrick Edwards (381) are two other weapons Keenum utilizes on a weekly basis.

Bryce Beall is the team's top option in the backfield and he had 62 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries against Tulane. The versatile Beall has made the most of his rushing attempts this season, going for 437 yards, and he is also part of the passing game, catching 21 balls.

The Cougars certainly need to tighten up things on defense, even if the offense is scoring at such high rate and quick pace. The unit is currently surrendering a way to high 448.2 total ypg and that includes 222.7 ypg on the ground. The defense has managed to recover 10 fumbles, but its nine sacks and four picks are two areas in need of improvement.

Last weekend, Houston bent, but it never broke and gave up just 16 points to Tulane despite allowing 437 total yards, including 187 rushing. The Cougars came up with one interception and two sacks and that helped the defense keep Tulane out of the end zone all but once.

Marcus McGraw helped limit Tulane by making 10 stops and he has been a tackling machine this season, with a team-high 70 to his credit.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.