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05/14/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only one horse has a chance to win the Triple Crown and that's Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt will take the next step towards racing immortality this Saturday in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.
Super Saver benefited from a dream trip two weeks ago when jockey Calvin Borel hugged the rail throughout most of the Derby before drawing off to an easy 2 1/2-length victory over the fast-closing Ice Box. Borel has now won three of the last four Triple Crown events, including the 2009 Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra.
Can Super Saver duplicate his previous outstanding performance? It's quite possible, but the morning line favorite will not have the luxury of a sloppy race course this time around. That could be a huge factor since two of his three lifetime wins have come on off-tracks. In addition, the WinStar Farm homebred will not be running at Churchill Downs, a surface he absolutely adores.
There's no doubt the Derby winner is a very good colt in a year in which the three-year-old crop is loaded with average horses. But he has never posted back-to-back wins in his seven-race career, and his odds this coming Saturday will be much lower than the 8-1 the public received two weeks ago.
Super Saver's main competitor is Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky. The Bob Baffert-trained colt comes into the Preakness with a different jockey for the first time as Martin Garcia replaces Garrett Gomez in the saddle.
Trouble is this colt's middle name and the Kentucky Derby was just another in a long line of miserable trips for the son of Smart Strike.
Most public handicappers shied away from Lookin At Lucky in the Derby after the colt drew the inside post position in the 20-horse field. The two-year-old champ felt the consequences right away getting pushed from the eighth spot all the way back to 18th in a matter of seconds.
Lookin At Lucky still made an impressive move, closing from 18th to sixth as the field moved through the stretch, but he ran out of gas inside the final furlong without improving his position.
Even if Lookin At Lucky receives a better trip this Saturday, winning the Preakness might be asking a lot for this California-based three-year-old. It's been almost a decade since the last time a West Coast horse (Point Given in 2001) won the Preakness.
Moreover, it's hard to bet on a horse that consistently finds himself in tight quarters each and every race, especially as the probable second choice.
OTHER KEY CONTENDERS
Paddy O'Prado sports in-the-money finishes in six of his last seven appearances, including a third in the Kentucky Derby.
After racing just off the lead in his two previous starts, the son of El Prado came off the pace at Churchill Downs getting a similar rail trip to Super Saver. The only difference was the winner had a free and clear path while Paddy O'Prado had to veer in and out behind tiring horses.
There's no denying the fact he could improve on his third-place effort with a better trip, but don't forget, he still has won only one race in his seven- race career, not the prototypical record for a Preakness winner.
Super Saver's other three main challengers did not run in the Kentucky Derby.
Schoolyard Dreams makes his first start in six weeks after a dismal fourth to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial, and after the race, trainer Derek Ryan revealed the horse was less than 100 percent due to a slight throat problem.
Prior to that effort, the son of Stephen Got Even made a huge middle move in the Tampa Bay Derby, wresting the lead away from Super Saver around the final turn before losing to Odysseus by a nose. On the negative side, that race was already his third start in 2010 while Super Saver was making his first appearances in over three months.
Also, it's unclear whether Schoolyard Dreams will be as effective at the 1 3/16-mile distance compared to 1 1/16-miles, so proceed with caution at the betting windows.
Caracortado is another three-year-old that finished fourth in his latest race. However, the gelding had a legitimate excuse in the Santa Anita Derby as he was interfered with by a fast fading Lookin At Lucky.
Trainer Michael Machowsky has trained Caracortado up to the Preakness working him seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 in preparations for the colt's first trek over 1 1/8-miles.
Lightly-raced Yawanna Twist is the final horse with a shot at crossing the wire first on Saturday. His 30-1 morning line suggests little chance, but don't be deceived by that number. The stakes-placed three-year-old has as much talent as any other horse in this field.
His second-place finish in the Illinois Derby was a much better effort than it looked on paper. The race was only his fourth ever start and first away from his home base in New York.
It was also the first time Yawanna Twist stalked the leader on his own as he sat a length or two behind American Lion for the first six furlongs. He then ran head-and-head with the pacesetter from the far turn until the eighth-pole before failing to keep pace over the tiring and heavy Hawthorne surface.
Even with the loss, he still finished over 11 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. That experience should give the son of Yonaguska the bottom he needs to improve even more in his fifth career start.
Yawanna Twist is also bred to handle the extra distance as both his grandsire (Cherokee Run - 1993) and damsire (Oliver's Twist - 1995) finished second in the Preakness.
Selections: 1) Yawanna Twist; 2) Super Saver; 3) Lookin At Lucky
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The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.
New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.
Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.
The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.
Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.
The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.
Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.
However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).
The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.
Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.
In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.
Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.
Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.
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