No-brainer for both Phils and Oswalt

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is hard to argue against the Philadelphia Phillies' acquisition of Houston righty Roy Oswalt, especially considering they received some money from the Astros and did not have to exercise his 2012 option.

In fact, it is an absolute no-brainer. I would give up prospects for a proven commodity every day and, unlike Anaheim plucking Dan Haren earlier in the week, this move does make the Phillies the favorites in not only the National League East, but the entire National League.

Plus they gave up nowhere near as much as the Angels had to surrender for Haren. J.A. Happ is not Joe Saunders and nobody Philly surrendered is as touted as Tyler Skaggs, who is going to be the player to be named later in that deal.

Oswalt would have been destroyed had he rejected this deal. I usually blow a gasket when players invoke their no-trade clauses rather than moving from a losing situation to a team in the playoff hunt. Derrek Lee just did it on Wednesday, turning down a deal to the Angels, but I can't get on him too much. He is as classy as they come, he loves playing for the Cubs and he already has a World Series ring with the Florida Marlins (2003).

Lee plays before a packed house at Wrigley Field every night, and while the Cubs aren't going to make the playoffs this year, they spend money and are always an offseason away from competing, particularly in a division that houses the likes of the Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Oswalt, on the other hand, would not have gotten a free pass. Houston has become baseball Siberia. It's clear that Philadelphia was not exactly his top choice, but pairing up with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels was too good a situation for him to turn down.

Would St. Louis have been a better fit for Oswalt? Probably. He seems like more of a St. Louis guy than a Philadelphian, and as a duo I would rather have Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright than Halladay and Hamels pitching with me, but whether Oswalt likes it or not, the Astros were going to explore every road that led them to a deal out of their own division. There is no way Houston GM Ed Wade wanted to face him five times a year.

Oswalt does lead the National League in losses, though the sabermetricians will tell you that wins and losses are not an accurate barometer for a pitcher's success. In this case, I have to agree. Oswalt has pitched to a 3.42 earned run average in 20 starts to go along with a 1.11 WHIP, and has held the opposition to a .229 batting average. Not to mention he has received a total of four runs of support in his last six starts.

Run support is not going to be a problem in Philadelphia. In case you haven't noticed, the Phils have cranked it up at the plate in the last week or so. Heading into action on Wednesday, Philadelphia has won seven straight and now sits just 3 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the division.

If there is anything that I have a problem with regarding the deal, it is that I don't necessarily think starting pitching was a problem for Charlie Manuel's club. It was the bats that put them in a hole. Now that the bats are coming alive again, the only real problem is the back-end bullpen, specifically closer Brad Lidge.

Lidge is an adventure every night. Lately he has been getting out of the jams he has put himself in, but I have no faith in him heading into the stretch run. And the problem is, there really are no other options from within. Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero are both competent, but seem to struggle when taken out of their current roles.

If Cole Hamels and Oswalt can follow Roy Halladay's lead and just throw nine innings every time out it won't be a problem, but we all know that is not going to happen. So either Lidge gets his act together soon, or this move amounts to very little come playoff time.

Of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the fact that the Phillies really wouldn't have had a need for a starting pitcher had Ruben Amaro just hung onto Cliff Lee this offseason.

I said at the time the move away from Lee made no sense. I would have non- tendered Joe Blanton and went for it with Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Worry about next year, next year.

Still, I respect Amaro for making this Oswalt move. It is not often that a general manager admits to making a mistake. And make no mistake, he is admitting he was wrong with this move.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.